Stefan Brandt

Stefan Brandt

“The Quant” · Low-beta (Betting Against Beta) · Zurich

“The market overpays for excitement. I own the boring, low-beta names and let risk-adjusted maths do the work.”

The market overpays for excitement. He buys the calm.

Harvests the low-volatility anomaly — the steadiest stocks, which the market quietly underprices.

RiskLow-beta (Betting Against Beta)Monthly20 large-cap stocksvs S&P 500

The approach

Comes from systematic, risk-first investing — where a position earns its place by the numbers, not the narrative.

Stefan harvests one of the most stubborn anomalies in finance: the calmest, least volatile stocks tend to deliver better risk-adjusted returns than their excitement-chasing peers, because the market systematically overpays for the thrill of high-flying names. He measures how much each large-cap stock moves with the market and owns the steadiest of them — no leverage, no shorts, just the quiet end of the market that quietly compounds.

Strengths

  • Lower volatility than the index
  • A real, published anomaly — not a hunch
  • No leverage, no shorts
  • Buys what others find boring

Worth knowing

When the market is led by its most volatile, speculative names — a junk rally — low-beta deliberately sits it out and will lag. The edge shows up over full cycles, and especially in the falls.

Built on

Betting Against Beta (Frazzini–Pedersen)

The academic case that low-beta is underpriced — held here long-only and unlevered.

The low-volatility anomaly

Calm stocks have historically beaten the risk they appear to carry.

Risk-adjusted thinking

Judge a holding by return per unit of risk, not by return alone.

The literature

Frazzini & Pedersen, “Betting Against Beta,” Journal of Financial Economics (2014)

The paper that formalised the low-beta edge.

Baker, Bradley & Wurgler (2011) on the low-volatility anomaly

Why the anomaly persists even though everyone knows about it.

Risk level 2–3 of 5

Conservative to moderate. Holds the twenty lowest-beta names in the S&P 500 — deliberately boring, defensive equity that tends to fall less than the market, but it is still fully invested in stocks.

Worst stretch in the 3-year backtest: a US$10,000 allocation would have fallen by US$1,571 (-15.7%) before recovering.

Form guide

Steady

Trades roughly monthly.

2 trading days in the last 306 in the last 90

Counted from the manager’s own decision log. Activity is temperament, not skill — a patient manager isn’t worse than a busy one.

In the book right now: KR · AWK · CF · RSG · TMUS +15 more — a few examples, without weights; every change they make is logged in plain English below.

Decision scorecard

Graded calls
48
Good calls
42%
Avg edge vs S&P 500
-1.3%

Every buy and sell is graded once, 14 days later, against S&P 500 over the same window — a buy scores well if it beat the benchmark, a sell if the symbol then trailed it. 25 buys, 23 sells graded so far.

Grades measure decisions; they never change the rules. Rule changes only happen through the published spec process — see the transparency page.

Hire Stefan to run part of your own brokerage account — $9.99 a month, cancel any time. Every order they propose waits for your approval; the deepest historical loss of this method is shown above before you commit anything.

Hire Stefan →
✓ VerifiedRules published in full·reproducible backtest 2af0088572·audited Jul 2026How we stay honest →

Backtest honesty

  • Survivorship bias

    This universe list holds today's constituents, so the backtest carries survivorship bias: companies that left the index along the way are not in the test.

  • Same code, both records

    Backtests and live trading run the same strategy code — there is no separate marketing backtest. Past performance does not predict future results.

  • The live record inherits a portfolio — it doesn't start from cash

    On its first live day (15.06.2026) this manager took over the exact positions its backtest ended holding, rather than buying a fresh book from cash. That keeps the two records one continuous portfolio instead of two disconnected ones — but it means the earliest live weeks are driven by holdings chosen before the live record began, and you will find no purchase entries for them in the decision log below. The first live entries are that portfolio's next scheduled review.

Interview Stefan

Ask about their approach, their recent decisions, what could go wrong — anything. They answer in plain language; the exact rules stay in the engine.

How Stefan invests

A plain-English summary of the approach. Every decision this manager makes is logged below in the same plain language, so you can always see exactly what happened and why.

Holds a basket of the calmest, steadiest large US stocks — deliberately boring, aiming to ride out the bumps the wider market takes. Reviewed monthly.

Track record

CAGR
+8.7%
Sharpe
0.73
Max drawdown
-15.7%
Worst month
-6.9%

Compounded over the window, US$10,000 would have become US$12,835 — hypothetical, and only for someone who sat through the -15.7% fall above without selling.

Backtest 08.08.2023 – 07.08.2026 · config 2af0088572b2ef61

921401882023-08-082026-08-07
This managerS&P 500
Both lines start at 100 on the same day. Shaded = each line's deepest fall (peak-to-trough): this manager -15.7% · S&P 500 -18.8% — note the two happen at different times.

Live paper-trading record

Live since 15.06.2026: a US$10,000 allocation would now be US$10,653 — up US$653 (+6.5%) over 58 trading days.

Marked at the last completed close, 04.09.2026 · NAV 129.20.

931021102026-06-152026-09-04
This managerS&P 500
Both lines start at 100 on the same day. Shaded = each line's deepest fall (peak-to-trough): this manager -5.0% · S&P 500 -3.4% — note the two happen at different times.

Crisis stress test

No 2008 or 2020 stress test for Stefan— and that's deliberate.

Stefan ranks individual stocks by beta, where survivorship bias would make a 2008/2020 replay flattering and dishonest.

We only publish a crisis chart when we can reproduce it honestly — we won't fake one. The managers whose instruments existed back then show their full 2008 & 2020 panels.

Decision log

Every action — and every deliberate non-action — in plain language, straight from the engine. Days the market was shut are listed separately, so they never bury a trade.

Running· last traded 1 Sept 2026· reassesses monthly, next at the end of SeptemberA gap between trades is the strategy, not a fault — this manager only changes what it holds on its own schedule. Your own account is checked against it every night.
  1. sellAPA

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — APA is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.74 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  2. buyWM

    WM is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.39 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  3. buyTMUS

    TMUS is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.37 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  4. buyPGR

    PGR is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.51 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  5. buyOKE

    OKE is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.44 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  6. buyMO

    MO is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.50 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  7. buyKR

    KR is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.67 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  8. buyFANG

    FANG is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.41 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  9. buyERIE

    ERIE is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.43 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  10. buyEOG

    EOG is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.59 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  11. buyED

    ED is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.49 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  12. buyAWK

    AWK is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.47 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  13. buyALL

    ALL is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.37 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  14. sellXOM

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — XOM is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.54 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  15. sellVRSK

    VRSK's beta rose out of the lowest-20 this month — sold.

  16. sellT

    T's beta rose out of the lowest-20 this month — sold.

  17. sellRSG

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — RSG is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.38 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  18. sellOXY

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — OXY is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.64 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  19. sellDVN

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — DVN is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.56 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  20. sellCVX

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — CVX is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.49 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  21. sellCOP

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — COP is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.52 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  22. sellCF

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — CF is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.94 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  23. sellBRO

    BRO's beta rose out of the lowest-20 this month — sold.

  24. rebalance

    Monthly low-beta screen: estimated betas for 499 S&P 500 names over 12 months; holding the 20 lowest-beta, equal-weight, fully invested. 4 name(s) excluded for missing data.

  25. pause

    Engine paused before trading: SPY: missing or non-positive prices in series — no orders were placed; the admin has been flagged.

  26. buyVRSK✗ -10.7% after 2wks

    VRSK is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.38 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  27. sellKO✓ -1.6% after 2wks

    KO's beta rose out of the lowest-20 this month — sold.

  28. sellMKC✗ +4.9% after 2wks

    MKC's beta rose out of the lowest-20 this month — sold.

  29. sellVZ✓ +1.7% after 2wks

    VZ's beta rose out of the lowest-20 this month — sold.

  30. sellCF✓ -4.1% after 2wks

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — CF is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.80 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  31. sellAPA✗ +14.0% after 2wks

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — APA is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.59 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  32. sellOXY✗ +6.2% after 2wks

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — OXY is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.52 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  33. sellXOM✗ +5.3% after 2wks

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — XOM is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.46 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  34. sellEOG✓ +0.9% after 2wks

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — EOG is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.46 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  35. sellCVX✗ +3.9% after 2wks

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — CVX is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.41 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  36. sellDVN✗ +8.0% after 2wks

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — DVN is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.40 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  37. sellT✗ +4.4% after 2wks

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — T is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.38 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  38. sellCOP✗ +7.7% after 2wks

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — COP is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.38 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  39. buyKR✗ -3.6% after 2wks

    KR is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.71 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  40. buyAWK✗ +0.4% after 2wks

    AWK is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.49 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  41. buyMO✗ -6.6% after 2wks

    MO is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.47 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  42. buyED✗ +0.5% after 2wks

    ED is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.46 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  43. buyPGR✗ -4.0% after 2wks

    PGR is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.46 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  44. buyTMUS✓ +2.7% after 2wks

    TMUS is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.38 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  45. buyERIE✗ +0.5% after 2wks

    ERIE is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.38 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  46. buyRSG✗ +1.9% after 2wks

    RSG is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.37 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  47. buyWM✗ -1.4% after 2wks

    WM is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.36 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  48. buyBRO✗ -3.7% after 2wks

    BRO is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.35 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  49. rebalance

    Monthly low-beta screen: estimated betas for 500 S&P 500 names over 12 months; holding the 20 lowest-beta, equal-weight, fully invested. 3 name(s) excluded for missing data.

  50. pause

    Engine paused before trading: SPY: missing or non-positive prices in series — no orders were placed; the admin has been flagged.

  51. sellAWK✓ -1.7% after 2wks

    AWK is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.45 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  52. buyXOM✓ +5.7% after 2wks

    XOM is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.39 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  53. buyVZ✗ +0.9% after 2wks

    VZ is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.31 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  54. buyTMUS✓ +10.5% after 2wks

    TMUS is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.44 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  55. buyT✓ +3.8% after 2wks

    T is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.36 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  56. buyRSG✓ +1.3% after 2wks

    RSG is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.27 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  57. buyPGR✗ -6.9% after 2wks

    PGR is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.32 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  58. buyOXY✓ +11.0% after 2wks

    OXY is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.42 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  59. buyMKC✗ -0.4% after 2wks

    MKC is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.31 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

  60. buyKR✓ +3.7% after 2wks

    KR is among the 20 lowest-beta S&P 500 names (beta -0.71 vs the market) — held equal-weight.

Your money stays in your own brokerage account — Alfred never holds it, and every order requires your explicit approval. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation. Past performance does not predict future results.Allocations on Alfred use virtual US dollars at the manager's daily NAV.

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