Marcus Webb

Marcus Webb

“The Capitol Tracker” · Congressional disclosure following · Washington DC

“When the people writing the rules are buying, it's worth knowing. I follow the US Senate's disclosed stock purchases — by the public filing date, never with hindsight.”

When the people writing the rules are buying, it’s worth knowing.

Follows the stocks US senators disclose buying — acting on the public filing date, never with hindsight.

RiskCongressional disclosure followingMonthlySenate-disclosed stocksvs S&P 500

The approach

Comes from where policy and markets meet — reading public disclosure filings as a data source, not as gossip.

Marcus follows a public, legally mandated paper trail: under the STOCK Act, US senators must disclose their share purchases. He ranks the stocks drawing the most disclosed buying and holds a basket of them — acting strictly on the public filing date, which can lag the actual trade by weeks, so there’s never any hindsight. It’s a transparency play on a curious empirical fact: that disclosed Congressional buying has, historically, been worth paying attention to.

Strengths

  • Built on public, mandated disclosures
  • Acts only on the filing date — no hindsight
  • A basket, not a single bet
  • An unusual, uncorrelated signal

Worth knowing

The disclosure lag means he’s always following late, and the signal is noisy — politicians buy for many reasons. This is a genuinely experimental strategy, and its holdings can be concentrated in whatever’s been filed lately.

Built on

Ziobrowski, Cheng, Boyd & Ziobrowski on US Senate stock returns

The academic finding that disclosed Senate purchases outperformed the market.

The STOCK Act

The law that made the filings public and timely — without it there is no signal to follow.

Bernard & Thomas, post-earnings-announcement drift

The wider evidence that markets absorb public information slowly enough to be tradable.

The literature

Ziobrowski, Cheng, Boyd & Ziobrowski, J. Financial & Quantitative Analysis (2004)

The study behind following disclosed Senate purchases.

Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act (2012)

The disclosure regime that supplies his data, and its filing deadlines.

Bernard & Thomas, “Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift”, J. Accounting Research (1989)

Why acting on already-public information can still pay — slow diffusion, not secrecy.

Risk level 4 of 5

Aggressive. A concentrated, high-turnover basket of 15 individual stocks the US Senate has most recently disclosed buying. Single-stock concentration means real drawdowns, and it always trades on public filings that lag the senators by up to 45 days.

Worst stretch in the 3-year backtest: a US$10,000 allocation would have fallen by US$2,304 (-23.0%) before recovering.

Form guide

Steady

Trades roughly monthly.

2 trading days in the last 306 in the last 90

Counted from the manager’s own decision log. Activity is temperament, not skill — a patient manager isn’t worse than a busy one.

In the book right now: META · INTC · MU · ORCL · PYPL +10 more — a few examples, without weights; every change they make is logged in plain English below.

Decision scorecard

Graded calls
49
Good calls
59%
Avg edge vs S&P 500
+2.4%

Every buy and sell is graded once, 14 days later, against S&P 500 over the same window — a buy scores well if it beat the benchmark, a sell if the symbol then trailed it. 25 buys, 24 sells graded so far.

Grades measure decisions; they never change the rules. Rule changes only happen through the published spec process — see the transparency page.

Hire Marcus to run part of your own brokerage account — $9.99 a month, cancel any time. Every order they propose waits for your approval; the deepest historical loss of this method is shown above before you commit anything.

Hire Marcus →
✓ VerifiedRules published in full·reproducible backtest 6bc6ecf991·audited Jul 2026How we stay honest →

Backtest honesty

  • Survivorship bias — read this before the chart

    This manager holds individual stocks, so disclosed names that have since delisted or been renamed can't be priced and are dropped from the backtest — a survivorship bias the live record won't have. Expect the live record to look more ordinary than the backtest.

  • Disclosure lag, coverage and sizing

    It acts on the public filing date, not the trade date, so it is always days-to-weeks behind the senator. The MVP covers electronic US Senate filings only — not the House, and not paper filings — and reported amounts are ranges, so every holding is equal-weight. The free disclosure snapshot is refreshed periodically; a deeper, continuous feed is a planned paid upgrade.

  • Same code, both records

    Backtests and live trading run the same strategy code — there is no separate marketing backtest. Past performance does not predict future results.

  • The live record inherits a portfolio — it doesn't start from cash

    On its first live day (15.06.2026) this manager took over the exact positions its backtest ended holding, rather than buying a fresh book from cash. That keeps the two records one continuous portfolio instead of two disconnected ones — but it means the earliest live weeks are driven by holdings chosen before the live record began, and you will find no purchase entries for them in the decision log below. The first live entries are that portfolio's next scheduled review.

Interview Marcus

Ask about their approach, their recent decisions, what could go wrong — anything. They answer in plain language; the exact rules stay in the engine.

How Marcus invests

A plain-English summary of the approach. Every decision this manager makes is logged below in the same plain language, so you can always see exactly what happened and why.

Tracks what US senators disclose buying. Each month he holds the 15 stocks with the most disclosed Senate purchases over the prior three months, equal-weight — acting only on the public filing date, never with hindsight. Reviewed monthly.

Track record

CAGR
+30.5%
Sharpe
1.50
Max drawdown
-23.0%
Worst month
-7.4%

Compounded over the window, US$10,000 would have become US$22,153 — hypothetical, and only for someone who sat through the -23.0% fall above without selling.

Backtest 06.07.2023 – 02.07.2026 · config 6bc6ecf991ba042b

841562282023-07-062026-07-02
This managerS&P 500
Both lines start at 100 on the same day. Shaded = each line's deepest fall (peak-to-trough): this manager -23.0% · S&P 500 -18.8% — note the two happen at different times.

Live paper-trading record

Live since 15.06.2026: a US$10,000 allocation would now be US$11,113 — up US$1,113 (+11.1%) over 58 trading days.

Marked at the last completed close, 04.09.2026 · NAV 237.85.

951041132026-06-152026-09-04
This managerS&P 500
Both lines start at 100 on the same day. Shaded = each line's deepest fall (peak-to-trough): this manager -2.9% · S&P 500 -3.4% — note the two happen at different times.

Crisis stress test

No 2008 or 2020 stress test for Marcus— and that's deliberate.

Marcus follows congressional trade disclosures — a data source that doesn’t reach back to 2008 or 2020.

We only publish a crisis chart when we can reproduce it honestly — we won't fake one. The managers whose instruments existed back then show their full 2008 & 2020 panels.

Decision log

Every action — and every deliberate non-action — in plain language, straight from the engine. Days the market was shut are listed separately, so they never bury a trade.

Running· last traded 1 Sept 2026· reassesses monthly, next at the end of SeptemberA gap between trades is the strategy, not a fault — this manager only changes what it holds on its own schedule. Your own account is checked against it every night.
  1. buyORCL

    ORCL: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  2. buyMSFT

    MSFT: 4 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  3. buyMETA

    META: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  4. buyKHC

    KHC: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  5. buyINTC

    INTC: 4 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  6. buyGOOG

    GOOG: 3 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  7. buyCBOE

    CBOE: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  8. buyBRK-B

    BRK-B: 3 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  9. sellT

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — T: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  10. sellPLTR

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — PLTR: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  11. sellMU

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — MU: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  12. sellETN

    ETN is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  13. sellDGX

    DGX is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  14. sellCIEN

    CIEN is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  15. sellAZN

    AZN is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  16. sellASML

    ASML is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  17. sellADBE

    ADBE is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  18. sellAAPL

    AAPL is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  19. buyWFC

    WFC: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  20. buyPYPL

    PYPL: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  21. buyO

    O: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  22. buyUNH

    UNH: 3 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  23. rebalance

    Monthly congressional-disclosure check: holding the top 15 stock(s) by disclosed Senate purchases over the last 90 days, equal-weight.

  24. pause

    Engine paused before trading: SPY: missing or non-positive prices in series — no orders were placed; the admin has been flagged.

  25. buyASML✓ +17.0% after 2wks

    ASML: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 1 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  26. buyAZN✗ -0.3% after 2wks

    AZN: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 1 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  27. buyCIEN✓ +21.8% after 2wks

    CIEN: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 1 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  28. buyDGX✗ +1.1% after 2wks

    DGX: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 1 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  29. buyWFC✗ -0.1% after 2wks

    WFC: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  30. buyAAPL✗ -1.4% after 2wks

    AAPL: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 1 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  31. sellAGZ✓ +0.5% after 2wks

    AGZ is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  32. sellALB✗ +15.4% after 2wks

    ALB is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  33. sellAMZN✓ -6.0% after 2wks

    AMZN is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  34. sellARES✗ +9.7% after 2wks

    ARES is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  35. sellAXP✓ -1.3% after 2wks

    AXP is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  36. sellCEG✗ +5.1% after 2wks

    CEG is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  37. sellCMBS✓ +0.8% after 2wks

    CMBS is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  38. sellERIE✓ +0.7% after 2wks

    ERIE is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  39. sellGIGB✓ -0.0% after 2wks

    GIGB is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  40. sellIEF✓ +0.2% after 2wks

    IEF is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  41. sellMSFT✓ +0.9% after 2wks

    MSFT is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  42. sellSCHP✓ +0.0% after 2wks

    SCHP is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  43. sellXFIV✓ +0.3% after 2wks

    XFIV is no longer a top-15 Senate buy — sold.

  44. sellADBE✓ -1.5% after 2wks

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — ADBE: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  45. buyBRK-B✗ -3.3% after 2wks

    BRK-B: 3 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  46. buyGOOG✗ -6.6% after 2wks

    GOOG: 3 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  47. buyETN✓ +9.9% after 2wks

    ETN: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  48. buyKHC✗ -5.6% after 2wks

    KHC: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  49. buyMU✓ +28.5% after 2wks

    MU: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  50. buyPLTR✓ +36.3% after 2wks

    PLTR: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  51. buyT✓ +4.2% after 2wks

    T: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  52. buyUNH✗ -5.3% after 2wks

    UNH: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  53. rebalance

    Monthly congressional-disclosure check: holding the top 15 stock(s) by disclosed Senate purchases over the last 90 days, equal-weight.

  54. pause

    Engine paused before trading: SPY: missing or non-positive prices in series — no orders were placed; the admin has been flagged.

  55. buySCHP✗ -0.3% after 2wks

    SCHP: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 1 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  56. buyMSFT✓ +3.8% after 2wks

    MSFT: 3 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 2 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  57. buyGIGB✗ -0.5% after 2wks

    GIGB: 2 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 1 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  58. buyCEG✓ +4.5% after 2wks

    CEG: 1 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 1 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  59. buyBRK-B✗ -2.8% after 2wks

    BRK-B: 1 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 1 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

  60. buyARES✓ +11.0% after 2wks

    ARES: 1 disclosed Senate purchase(s) by 1 senator(s) in the last 90 days — a top-15 most-bought name, held at 6.7%.

Your money stays in your own brokerage account — Alfred never holds it, and every order requires your explicit approval. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation. Past performance does not predict future results.Allocations on Alfred use virtual US dollars at the manager's daily NAV.

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