Arjun Mehta

Arjun Mehta

“The Tech Specialist” · Tech growth momentum · Bengaluru

“Innovation compounds. I hold the strongest names in tech — but only while the tide is in.”

He holds the strongest in tech — but only while the tide is in.

Owns the strongest large-cap tech names while the sector is healthy, and goes fully to cash when it isn’t.

RiskTech growth momentumMonthlyNasdaq-100 leadersvs Nasdaq-100

The approach

Comes from technology investing — close enough to the industry to respect how fast its leadership turns over.

Arjun owns the strongest-performing names in large-cap technology — the leaders momentum is already rewarding — but with a crucial safety valve: if the tech market as a whole falls below its long-term trend, he sells everything and waits in cash. It’s concentrated, high-conviction exposure to innovation while the wind is at its back, and a clean exit when the sector turns. He rides leadership; he doesn’t bottom-fish broken charts.

Strengths

  • Concentrated in proven leaders
  • A full-cash exit when tech breaks down
  • Rides the sector’s strongest momentum
  • Refreshes its winners every month

Worth knowing

Concentrated tech is volatile, and the trend filter reads monthly closes — a violent intramonth drop can hurt before the exit triggers. High ceiling, higher swings.

Built on

Jegadeesh & Titman, cross-sectional momentum

Own the strongest names; winners tend to keep leading over 3–12 months.

Faber's 10-month trend filter

Step fully aside when the whole sector breaks its long-term trend.

Moskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen, time-series momentum

Why the sector gate is its own discipline — an asset's own trend carries a separate signal.

The literature

Jegadeesh & Titman, “Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers”, J. Finance (1993)

The ranking that selects his book.

Faber, “A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation” (2007)

The trend gate that moves him fully to cash.

Moskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen, “Time Series Momentum”, J. Financial Economics (2012)

The published basis for the absolute-trend half of his rule.

Risk level 5 of 5

The equal-highest risk on the roster — re-rated 5/5 by the August 2026 audit after live volatility proved the highest in the house. Concentrated tech momentum with a regime brake: strong runs in bull markets, violent drawdowns when momentum turns (−39% in his first eight live weeks, and −42% at worst in the backtest), cash when the tide goes out.

Worst stretch in the 3-year backtest: a US$10,000 allocation would have fallen by US$4,222 (-42.2%) before recovering.

Form guide

Steady

Trades roughly monthly.

2 trading days in the last 306 in the last 90

Counted from the manager’s own decision log. Activity is temperament, not skill — a patient manager isn’t worse than a busy one.

In the book right now: SNDK · NBIS · MRVL · MU · ALAB +5 more — a few examples, without weights; every change they make is logged in plain English below.

Decision scorecard

Graded calls
23
Good calls
48%
Avg edge vs Nasdaq-100
+3.7%

Every buy and sell is graded once, 14 days later, against Nasdaq-100 over the same window — a buy scores well if it beat the benchmark, a sell if the symbol then trailed it. 13 buys, 10 sells graded so far.

Grades measure decisions; they never change the rules. Rule changes only happen through the published spec process — see the transparency page.

Hire Arjun to run part of your own brokerage account — $9.99 a month, cancel any time. Every order they propose waits for your approval; the deepest historical loss of this method is shown above before you commit anything.

Hire Arjun →
✓ VerifiedRules published in full·reproducible backtest 7c2cb9ed2f·audited Jul 2026How we stay honest →

Backtest honesty

  • Survivorship bias — read this before the chart

    The backtest ranks today's Nasdaq-100 constituents, so it carries meaningful survivorship bias: several of the winners it holds were only added to the index because they had already won. The live strategy could not have known these winners in advance — expect the live record to look more ordinary than the backtest. The live evidence has made that concrete, and cost this manager his flattering headline twice over: his live drawdown reached −39% in eight weeks, and when the index list was refreshed in August 2026 the recomputed backtest fell from +88% a year to +62% while its worst drawdown deepened from −28% to −42%. The August 2026 audit re-rated his risk to 5/5 — docs/15 has the full reasoning.

  • Same code, both records

    Backtests and live trading run the same strategy code — there is no separate marketing backtest. Past performance does not predict future results.

  • The live record inherits a portfolio — it doesn't start from cash

    On its first live day (12.06.2026) this manager took over the exact positions its backtest ended holding, rather than buying a fresh book from cash. That keeps the two records one continuous portfolio instead of two disconnected ones — but it means the earliest live weeks are driven by holdings chosen before the live record began, and you will find no purchase entries for them in the decision log below. The first live entries are that portfolio's next scheduled review.

Interview Arjun

Ask about their approach, their recent decisions, what could go wrong — anything. They answer in plain language; the exact rules stay in the engine.

How Arjun invests

A plain-English summary of the approach. Every decision this manager makes is logged below in the same plain language, so you can always see exactly what happened and why.

Holds the strongest-performing big technology names — but only while the tech market itself is trending up. When the tide turns, he moves fully to cash. Reviewed monthly.

Track record

CAGR
+61.8%
Sharpe
1.30
Max drawdown
-42.2%
Worst month
-29.9%

Compounded over the window, US$10,000 would have become US$42,310 — hypothetical, and only for someone who sat through the -42.2% fall above without selling.

Backtest 08.08.2023 – 07.08.2026 · config 7c2cb9ed2f0d5336

913696482023-08-082026-08-07
This managerNasdaq-100
Both lines start at 100 on the same day. Shaded = each line's deepest fall (peak-to-trough): this manager -42.2% · Nasdaq-100 -22.8% — note the two happen at different times.

Live paper-trading record

Live since 15.06.2026: a US$10,000 allocation would now be US$7,349 — down US$2,651 (-26.5%) over 58 trading days.

Marked at the last completed close, 04.09.2026 · NAV 529.93.

62841072026-06-152026-09-04
This managerNasdaq-100
Both lines start at 100 on the same day. Shaded = each line's deepest fall (peak-to-trough): this manager -39.4% · Nasdaq-100 -11.0% — note the two happen at different times.

Crisis stress test

No 2008 or 2020 stress test for Arjun— and that's deliberate.

Arjun picks individual tech stocks, where survivorship bias would make a crisis replay flattering and dishonest.

We only publish a crisis chart when we can reproduce it honestly — we won't fake one. The managers whose instruments existed back then show their full 2008 & 2020 panels.

Decision log

Every action — and every deliberate non-action — in plain language, straight from the engine. Days the market was shut are listed separately, so they never bury a trade.

Running· last traded 1 Sept 2026· reassesses monthly, next at the end of SeptemberA gap between trades is the strategy, not a fault — this manager only changes what it holds on its own schedule. Your own account is checked against it every night.
  1. buyPANW

    PANW is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+156.6%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  2. buyFTNT

    FTNT is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+116.3%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  3. buyDDOG

    DDOG is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+111.7%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  4. buyCRWD

    CRWD is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+148.4%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  5. sellWDC

    WDC dropped out of the top 10 by 6-month return — sold at the next open.

  6. sellSTX

    STX dropped out of the top 10 by 6-month return — sold at the next open.

  7. sellSNDK

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — SNDK is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+146.6%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  8. sellMU

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — MU is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+132.6%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  9. sellMRVL

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — MRVL is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+159.3%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  10. sellINTC

    INTC dropped out of the top 10 by 6-month return — sold at the next open.

  11. buyALAB

    ALAB is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+149.9%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  12. buyNBIS

    NBIS is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+126.3%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  13. sellARM

    ARM dropped out of the top 10 by 6-month return — sold at the next open.

  14. buyAMD

    AMD is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+135.1%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  15. rebalance

    Monthly momentum check: QQQ is above its 200-day average, so the portfolio holds the top 10 of 100 ranked constituents by 6-month return, equal-weight. 2 constituent(s) excluded for missing data this rebalance.

  16. pause

    Engine paused before trading: QQQ: missing or non-positive prices in series — no orders were placed; the admin has been flagged.

  17. buyINTC✓ +17.0% after 2wks

    INTC is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+94.1%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  18. sellAMAT✗ +7.4% after 2wks

    AMAT dropped out of the top 10 by 6-month return — sold at the next open.

  19. sellLRCX✗ +21.0% after 2wks

    LRCX dropped out of the top 10 by 6-month return — sold at the next open.

  20. sellWDC✓ +2.3% after 2wks

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — WDC is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+117.9%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  21. sellSTX✗ +21.7% after 2wks

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — STX is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+110.5%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  22. sellAMD✗ +9.7% after 2wks

    Trimming an overweight position back to its target weight — AMD is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+101.1%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  23. buyMRVL✓ +29.7% after 2wks

    MRVL is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+137.8%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  24. buyARM✓ +18.2% after 2wks

    ARM is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+127.5%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  25. buySNDK✓ +53.9% after 2wks

    SNDK is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+110.8%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  26. buyDDOG✗ -9.5% after 2wks

    DDOG is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+107.2%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  27. buyFTNT✗ -4.7% after 2wks

    FTNT is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+99.3%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  28. buyMU✓ +28.5% after 2wks

    MU is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+98.5%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  29. rebalance

    Monthly momentum check: QQQ is above its 200-day average, so the portfolio holds the top 10 of 101 ranked constituents by 6-month return, equal-weight.

  30. pause

    Engine paused before trading: QQQ: missing or non-positive prices in series — no orders were placed; the admin has been flagged.

  31. pause

    Engine paused before trading: QQQ: missing or non-positive prices in series — no orders were placed; the admin has been flagged.

  32. buyMU✗ -16.5% after 2wks

    MU is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+304.6%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  33. buyARM✗ -18.9% after 2wks

    ARM is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+224.4%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  34. buyAMD✗ -5.2% after 2wks

    AMD is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+171.3%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  35. buyAMAT✗ -13.4% after 2wks

    AMAT is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+182.0%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  36. sellSNDK✓ -22.5% after 2wks

    SNDK is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+857.8%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  37. sellMRVL✓ -26.9% after 2wks

    MRVL is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+251.0%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  38. sellLRCX✓ -16.9% after 2wks

    LRCX is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+153.6%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  39. sellLITE✓ -8.2% after 2wks

    LITE dropped out of the top 10 by 6-month return — sold at the next open.

  40. sellINTC✓ -23.6% after 2wks

    INTC is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+278.4%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  41. buyWDC✗ -15.1% after 2wks

    WDC is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+271.0%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  42. buySTX✗ -7.9% after 2wks

    STX is in the top 10 Nasdaq-100 names by 6-month return (+251.3%) — held equal-weight while the tide is in.

  43. rebalance

    Monthly momentum check: QQQ is above its 200-day average, so the portfolio holds the top 10 of 101 ranked constituents by 6-month return, equal-weight.

Your money stays in your own brokerage account — Alfred never holds it, and every order requires your explicit approval. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation. Past performance does not predict future results.Allocations on Alfred use virtual US dollars at the manager's daily NAV.

← All managers